THE SOCIOECONOMIC AND POLITICAL DYNAMICS OF ETHNIC IDENTITY AND ELECTORAL VIOLENCE DURING THE 2023 GENERAL ELECTIONS IN LAGOS STATE, NIGERIA

Abstract

This study examines the socioeconomic and political dynamics of ethnic identity and electoral violence in Lagos State during the 2023 general elections. The elections exposed deep-seated ethnic tensions, voter suppression, and violence, driven by cultural heritage, socioeconomic disparities, and political representation. Grounded in Social Identity Theory, the study employed a mixed-methods approach, collecting survey data from 400 respondents across six Local Government Areas. Descriptive statistics, correlation, and regression analyses revealed that group solidarity (β = 0.265, p < 0.001) was the strongest predictor of electoral violence, particularly in Alimosho (19.8%) and Ojo - Alaba (25%). Ethnic identity significantly influenced voting patterns, reinforcing political polarization and disputes over representation. While community engagement and security interventions were implemented, structural inequalities and ethnic-based mobilization remained key challenges. The study recommends inclusive governance, strengthened inter-ethnic dialogue, and electoral reforms to mitigate ethnic-driven electoral violence in Lagos State.