JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND ALLIED RESEARCH <p><strong>Aims and Scope</strong></p> <p>Journal of Economics and Allied Research (JEAR) is a peer-reviewed open access journal published by the Department of Economics, University of Nigeria, Nsukka.</p> <p>The journal accepts state of the art research in the following areas: All areas of mainstream economics as well as other areas such as education, environment, health, economics geography, development issues, social and cultural issues, petroleum and energy economics, political economy, and public policy.</p> <p>The journal publishes articles quarterly (March, June, September and December Issues). The journal can also publish more than four times a year depending on the rate of submission and also based on editorial board’s decision. Articles involving cross sectional, cross country, time series and panel studies are welcome. In selecting articles for publication (from articles that have passed the review process) the journal will endeavour to strike a balance among the subject areas and methodological approaches. In order to facilitate the speed of acceptance, articles addressing current economic problems or challenges with specific policy relevance will be given priority.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Journal Publication Policy and Ethics</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>Review mechanism</strong>: peer review involving two reviewers and editorial review.</li> <li><strong>Plagiarism checks</strong>: All submitted articles are subjected to plagiarism checks in order to maintain ethical standards in its published articles. Authors whose papers fail plagiarism checks will have their papers desk-rejected and will also be barred from submitting articles to the journal for two years.</li> <li><strong>Ethics policy</strong></li> </ul> <p>The editorial board of the Journal of Economics and Allied Research (JEAR) follows the standards of editorial ethics in line with the international ethical rules of scientific publications and every makes effort to prevent them from being violated. The editorial board strictly adheres to all the recommendations of the Committee on Publishing Ethics (COPE, more details: <a href=""></a>).</p> <p>The editorial board of the Journal of Economics and Allied Research (JEAR) confirms that there are no abusive tendencies (bad faith) among all participants in the publishing process: authors, editors, reviewers, and the founders of the journal.</p> <ul> <li><strong>Open Access Statement and Copyright License</strong></li> </ul> <p>Journal of Economics and Allied Research (JEAR) is an Open Access Journal. All articles are published under the CC-BY Creative Commons attribution license (CC-BY, version 4.0). This journal provides immediate open access to its content on the principle that making research freely available to the public supports a greater global exchange of knowledge.</p> <p>All rights belong to the Centre for Contemporary Economics and Allied Research, Department of Economics, University of Nigeria, Nsukka. Authors submitting their articles to the journal automatically give their consent for publication under these conditions.</p> <p>The authors who submit the article for publication is responsible for the use of copyrighted sources included in the manuscript, being correctly mentioned in the bibliographic references. The publisher makes no warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein.</p> <p>The use of general descriptive names, trade names, trademarks, and so forth in this publication, even if not specifically identified, does not imply that these names are not protected by the relevant laws and regulations. The submitting author is responsible for securing any permission needed for the reuse of copyrighted materials included in the manuscript.</p> <p>Any usage rights are regulated through the Creative Commons License. The CC BY license lets others distribute, transmit, and build upon your work, transmit and adapt the work, as long as they credit you for the original creation. This is the most accommodating of licenses offered. Recommended for maximum dissemination and use of licensed materials.</p> en-US JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND ALLIED RESEARCH 2536-7447 POLITICAL CYCLES IN STOCK MARKET RETURN MOVEMENTS IN NIGERIA <p>The degree to which stock market movements in emerging/developing democracies follow a political cycle, such as the presidential election cycle (PEC), is a crucial area of research in the field of how the political system affect stock markets. &nbsp;This relationship's rationalization accords with the Political Business Cycle Theory (PBC) claims regarding the opportunistic policy behavior of elected presidencies in democracies. It attributes its existence to the effect of a presidency's electoral tenure. The relationship has, nevertheless, been determined to be a puzzle, representing the inconsistency between the robust empirical support for the established US stock market but the lack of equivalent findings for other developed democracies or the PBC theories' implications. This study is motivated by the claim that results from stock markets with varying degrees of market efficiency are instructive to&nbsp;address the puzzle. Thus, the study offers insights from the developing Nigerian stock market. It employs multidimensional analysis to look into the PEC in the Nigerian stock market, utilizing regression, time domain, and frequency domain studies. The findings from the time domain analysis and the PEC model of stock returns fail to support that the years of the presidential election tenure cause the differences in average stock returns across the first and second halves of the presidential election term. The study concludes that the evidence fails to support a causal effect of the years of the presidential tenure on the stock market in Nigeria. Political cycle of the form of the PEC do not appear to exist in Nigeria. The study recommends that investors in Nigeria’s stock markets should ignore market timing strategies, such as that based on the PEC pattern in stock market returns, and employ long-term portfolio investment strategies. &nbsp;</p> FAVOURED MOGBOLU SUNDAY OSAHON IGBINEDION Copyright (c) 2024 JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND ALLIED RESEARCH 2024-05-01 2024-05-01 9 1 1 16 LIFE EXPECTANCY IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN COUNTRIES: DOES ECONOMIC WELFARE MATTER? <p>To achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3, improved health outcomes is very vital. However, relatively low life expectancy and high mortality rates characterized most countries in subSaharan Africa (SSA) region. This paper investigated the effect of economic welfare on life expectancy in sub-Saharan Africa for a panel dataset of 44 selected countries spanning between 2000 and 2021. The study decomposed economic welfare into real gross domestic product, carbon dioxide emission and secondary school enrolment rate. Cross-sectional dependence and homogeneity slope tests were conducted, Generalized Method of Moments estimation method was employed in the analysis, further robustness checks were conducted with Average Mean Group. Reduction in carbon dioxide emission and secondary school enrolment rate level significantly increased life expectancy. Real Gross Domestic Product had positive but insignificant effect on life expectancy. The panel granger causality test revealed that real GDP, secondary school enrolment rate and carbon dioxide emission had bidirectional causal relationship with life expectancy. The study recommends that policy reforms towards reducing carbo dioxide emissions, increase in income levels, and adequate investment in education should be adopted for achieving long life expectancy in Sub-Saharan African countries.</p> OMOWUMI AYONI MOMOH JOSEPH OLUSEGUN AJIBOLA ADEGBEMI BABATUNDE ONAKOYA Copyright (c) 2024 JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND ALLIED RESEARCH 2024-05-21 2024-05-21 9 1 17 34 ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS AND NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE IN AFRICAN OIL PRODUCING COUNTRIES: EVIDENCE FROM ASYMMETRIC COINTEGRATION <p>The role of exchange rates is very important in the international market, and the variability of exchange rates, in appreciation or depreciation, is directly connected with a country's economic performance. Exchange rate variations in oil-producing African countries have been too high, resulting in volatilities due to domestic and foreign shocks. High exchange rate volatility may translate into reduced. Several studies on the relationship between economic fundamentals and exchange rates focused more on Africa or country-specific countries, with limited focus on African oil-producing countries using asymmetric cointegration. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between some economic fundamentals and exchange rates in African oil-producing countries. The dynamic panel nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag and linear autoregressive distributed lag were used to investigate the relationship between economic fundamentals and nominal exchange rate (NER). The NARDL result shows that that there is evidence of both short and long-run asymmetric relationship between economic fundamentals and the nominal exchange rate. The study recommended that policymakers in African oilproducing countries should encourage strong and stable currencies that will stabilize each country's economy</p> ADEOLA ADELEYE OLUWATOSIN BASHIR AWORINDE OLALEKAN JOSEPH AJIBOLA OLUSEGUN Copyright (c) 2024 JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND ALLIED RESEARCH 2024-05-21 2024-05-21 9 1 35 51 ESTIMATING ECONOMIC WELFARE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: THE IMPACT OF TAX POLICY AND GOVERNANCE <p>Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has demonstrated slow progress in enhancing sustainable economic welfare evidenced by growing economic inequalities and disparities. This raises concerns regarding the efficacy of existing economic strategies and governance frameworks. Furthermore, there is a paucity of literature on the role of governance [GOV] in understanding the nexus between tax policy and economic welfare. We employed an ex-post facto research design. Based on data availability from 1996 to 2022, 36 SSA countries were considered in the study. Data was obtained from World Development Indicators (2022) and World Governance Indicators (2022). Data were analysed using the System-Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM). The Pedroni test for cointegration was used to capture the long-term relationships among the variables. The study concluded that tax policy and governance affected economic welfare in SSA. By enhancing households' ability to consume, these policies can alleviate poverty, and reduce inequality, we therefore recommend that tax revenue be used to fund social welfare programs or tax credits targeted at lower-income individuals. This income redistribution can lead to increased spending among lower-income households with a greater inclination towards consumption, and improve overall welfare outcomes.</p> O. OLALEYE ADENIKE A. TELLA SHERIFFDEEN B. AWORINDE OLALEKAN Copyright (c) 2024 JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND ALLIED RESEARCH 2024-05-21 2024-05-21 9 1 52 64 CUSTOMER SATISFACTION SURVEY OF THE BUS RAPID TRANSIT (BRT) SERVICE IN LAGOS <p>Many metropolitan cities in developing countries currently face an urban mass transit transport gap. Some transportation authorities in these cities introduced the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) service along the major routes to overcome this gap. Commuters’ satisfaction usually determines the success of a mass transit scheme based on assessing various satisfaction parameters. In this regard, high customer satisfaction is one of the main reasons why several cities worldwide have adopted BRT to solve the problem of mass transit. Therefore, this study, contextualized on the Ikorodu-TBS corridor in the Lagos state of Nigeria, examined the satisfaction of BRT commuters compared to that of other bus types to determine whether there are any significant differences. To test commuters' satisfaction, a Likert-scale questionnaire was distributed to 500 users of BRT and other bus types of which 472 completed the survey. Respondents were asked to identify their level of satisfaction. Responses were analyzed using the Kruskal-Wallis H Test. The results showed that significant differences exist. Subsequently, pairwise comparisons were performed using Dunn’s (1964) procedure with a Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons which revealed that while the difference between BRT and other bus types was significant in some cases, it was not in other cases, suggesting that the state needs to work diligently to improve the areas of weakness identified by the study. By testing for the significant difference between the various satisfaction variables between BRT and other bus types, this study established that, indeed, there are. The study revealed that from the post hoc test the BRT does not yet have the desired level of satisfaction among commuters whose perceptions suggest significant differences in their transportation experience between the BRT and the other transport service operators. This implies that even though the performance of BRT is remarkable in some cases, there is a need to improve in other areas such as price in order for BRT to fulfill the primary purpose - affordability and accessibility- for which it was established.</p> FRANCIS-XAVIER IJEM OJADI IHEANACHO NKEMDILIM CLINTON CHIBUEZE FELIX MAIYAKI SHENENI Copyright (c) 2024 JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND ALLIED RESEARCH 2024-05-21 2024-05-21 9 1 65 89 EFFECT OF HUMAN CAPITAL FLIGHT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SUBSAHARAN AFRICA <p>Economic growth refers to a rise in the production of goods and services by people, either in terms of quantity or quality. It plays a crucial role in determining the overall living standards of individuals. Therefore, in the absence of human capital or reduction of human capital in a country there will be non-performance of physical capital (such as tools, machinery, and equipment) which will delay economic growth and development in a nation. The objective of the study is to examine the effect of human capital flight on economic growth in the SubSaharan African (SSA) region. The technique adopted for this study is the Panel Corrected Standard Error Method. This method was employed because it controls for heteroscedasticity and auto correlation. The result revealed that there exist a direct relationship between net migration and economic growth in SSA. This shows that the net migration enhances economic growth in SSA region. Thus, net migration positively impact economic growth in the SSA region. Investment in education and training is important for SSA countries as it can aid individuals in improving their skills and progressing in their professions.</p> ADEDOYIN TEMILADE AKINOLA OLADAPO GBENGA AWOLAJA ADEGBEMI BABATUNDE ONAKOYA Copyright (c) 2024 JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND ALLIED RESEARCH 2024-05-21 2024-05-21 9 1 90 104 DOES FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT LEAD TO POVERTY REDUCTION IN NIGERIA? EVIDENCE FROM A TODA YAMAMOTO CAUSALITY TEST <p>The study employed the augmented Granger causality test approach developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) to investigate the causal link between financial development and poverty reduction in Nigeria between 1981 and 2020 using secondary data. Two different measures of financial development namely ratio of broad money supply and private sector credit to GDP were used to capture the different channels through which finance affects poverty reduction. The study found that when monetization variable i.e. ratio of broad money supply to GDP was used as proxy there was a unidirectional causality running from financial development to poverty reduction indicating that ratio of broad money supply to GDP granger caused reductions in poverty incidence in Nigeria. However, when ratio of private sector credit to GDP was used as proxy the result showed a no causality relationship between financial development and poverty reduction suggesting that private sector credit did not contribute to poverty reduction within the period under review. The study therefore recommended the need to further deepen the financial sector in Nigeria through innovations, improved financial instruments and infrastructures, adequate regulation and supervision that will encourage the expansion and improvement of financial services in the form of payment and saving vehicle affordable to the less privileged</p> OBINNA OSUJI INNOCENT EKEAGWU Copyright (c) 2024 JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND ALLIED RESEARCH 2024-05-21 2024-05-21 9 1 105 120 ASSESSMENT OF THE PROBLEM OF FINANCE AND SERVICE DELIVERY IN YOLA NORTH LOCAL GOVERNMENT OF ADAMAWA STATE <p>This paper aims to assess the problem of finance and service delivery in local government in Nigeria with specific reference to Yola North local government of Adamawa State, 2015-2020. It utilizes both secondary and primary methods of data collection and their contents are analyzed qualitatively. The findings of the paper revealed that Local government is the closest government to the people in Nigeria, yet the people are deprived of the benefits of its existence. This is evident in the deteriorated state of education, health, roads, electricity, pipe-borne water, markets, transport systems, etc. as in some states attributed to poor service delivery of local governments in those states that are regarded as the poorest states in Nigeria since the commencement of democracy in 1999. It concludes that local government is ostensibly meant to have prudent and effective management of finance/funds for efficient and effective service delivery. Local governments are created to fulfill and facilitate grassroots development. Unfortunately, the problems of finance and service delivery are thwarted by corruption, a narrow revenue base, inadequate finance/funding, and constitutional lacuna, among others. It therefore recommended among others that there is a need for re-strengthening the institutions and mechanisms saddled with ensuring integrity and accountability in local government. This would go a long way to lessen resource mismanagement, plunder, and outright conversion of public funds to private advantage.</p> AIDE ABDULRAZAK SULEIMAN MIJINYAWA USMAN ISA DAVID AIDE YAHAYA UBA GARKIDA Copyright (c) 2024 JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND ALLIED RESEARCH 2024-05-21 2024-05-21 9 1 121 130 TEMPERATURE SHOCKS AND AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT IN NIGERIA: A DYNAMIC COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH <p>This study investigated the effect of temperature shocks on agricultural output in Nigeria using the Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (DCGE) model. By examining the effects of temperature rise, the study provided valuable insights into the influence of extreme weather conditions on agricultural output in Nigeria. Data was obtained from the 2019 social accounting matrix (SAM). The estimation involved a simulation, which was conducted to determine both the short term and long-term effects of temperature shocks. The findings of the study showed that higher temperatures would result in a decrease in agricultural output in both the short and long term. The study therefore emphasized the need for proactive policies towards countering the negative effect of high temperature in the agricultural sector. Policies should also seek to influence the behavior of economic agents such that their economic activities do not contribute to higher temperature and heat levels.</p> KINGSLEY IMANDOJEMU AKIN IWAYEMI OVIKUOMAGBE OYEDELE Copyright (c) 2024 JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND ALLIED RESEARCH 2024-05-21 2024-05-21 9 1 131 143 ROLE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH IN POVERTY REDUCTION IN NIGERIA <p>This study examined the effect of economic growth on poverty in Nigeria. The study was informed by the rising poverty level in the country, despite concerted efforts made by government towards poverty reduction. It explored the relationship between economic growth and poverty reduction in Nigeria by identifying components that influence economic growth in various sectors of the economy. In order to address the problem, time series data covering the period 1990 to 2023 was used to estimate the variables in the model. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used to estimate the regression equation. It was found that gross capital formation has negative and insignificant impact on poverty reduction. This indicates the need for continuous investment in capital formation to boost industrialization, which enhance economic growth. The study found that economic growth has negative and significant impact on poverty reduction both in the short run and long run. Based on the findings, it was recommended that poverty reduction policies that enhance economic growth through expansion of employment opportunities, agricultural productivity, raising investment and improving the living standard of households should be encouraged in the country.</p> NICODEMUS SAMSON NYAKO Copyright (c) 2024 JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND ALLIED RESEARCH 2024-05-21 2024-05-21 9 1 144 154