INTERROGATING THE DETERMINANTS OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET PRESSURE IN NIGERIA

Abstract

In view of the perennial problem of foreign exchange market pressure in Nigeria, this paper has interrogated the determinants of foreign exchange market pressure in the Nigerian economy. The study is anchored on the Marshall-Lerner theory of demand and supply of foreign exchange. The study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model on the Nigerian data spanning from 1970 to 2019. The findings of the study revealed that oil prices, current account position and monetary policy rate are inversely related with the foreign exchange market pressure; while inflation rate, government expenditure and foreign debts were found to be positively related with foreign exchange market pressure in Nigeria both in the short and long-run. Based on these findings, the study recommended that there should be proper demand management of foreign exchange by the Central Bank of Nigeria to conserve the scarce foreign exchange for importation of productive inputs so as to encourage local production. On the supply side of foreign exchange management, the study recommends that the economy should be diversified away from oil to non-oil production and exportation. Finally, the study recommended that government at all levels in Nigeria should enhance the internally generated revenue so as to reduce foreign debt servicing burden in the country among others.