PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES IN NIGERIA: IS THERE AN EMPIRICAL NEXUS?

Abstract

This paper examines the empirical nexus between presidential elections and a host of macroeconomic variables in Nigeria in order to determine the effects of pre-election (preelection dummy) and post-election (post-election dummy) on economic activities in Nigeria in the new democratic era spanning 1999-2015. Employing OLS econometric techniques, the empirical results reveal that presidential elections have a significant effect on economic activities in Nigeria. In particular, the results, using Nigerian data, show that pre-election and post election have significant influence on stock market, gross capital formation (proxy by gross domestic investment), government expenditure and inflation.  The impact of pre-election and post-election on real GDP (a measure of economic growth) is positive though insignificant. Therefore stable political environment must be put in place that guarantees credible elections. Importantly, it needs to be supported with sound institutional structures and macroeconomic policies that enhance rapid economic growth