THE LONG RUN RELATIONSHIP OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND SUGARCANE PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA

Abstract

In recent years, there has been a reduction in the output of sugarcane per hectare in Nigeria from 19.2 tons per hectare in 2009 to 16.3 tons per hectare in 2016 due to rising temperature and unpredictable rainfall. This study examined climate change and sugarcane production in Nigeria from 1970 to 2021 using error correction model. Time series data were employed for the study. The results showed that temperature and rainfall adversely affected sugarcane output in Nigeria during the period studied with temperature depicting a warming trend. Furthermore, results showed a negative relationship between sugarcane output and temperature and a positive relationship between sugarcane output and rainfall in the short run. The results of error correction model showed that sugarcane output was affected by other variables included in the model both in the long and short-runs. The coefficient of the error correction term (ECT_1) was negative and significant at 5% level, indicating that sugarcane production adjusted to equilibrium given any changes in climatic variables. Consequently, for this model in the shortrun, sugarcane production was adjusted by 3% of the past year’s deviation from equilibrium. The variance decomposition result showed that rainfall drastically affect sugarcane output. It is therefore recommended that for Nigeria to mitigate the negative consequence of climate change on sugarcane production, there is a need for the promotion of irrigation systems.