NON-OIL EXPORTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

Abstract

This research utilizes yearly data from 1971 to 2021 to analyse the trajectory of non-oil exports and its impact on the economic growth of Nigeria. The analysis of the data was conducted utilising the Bayesian vector autoregressive model. The study's findings provide empirical evidence supporting the notion that non-oil exports have a positive and statistically significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria. For instance, the percentage rise in cocoa exports during the last year (QCXP (-1)) and the past two years (QCXP (-2)) resulted in a corresponding increase in GDP of around 0.12 percent and 0.39 percent, respectively. Furthermore, it is worth noting that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) exhibited a growth of around 0.59 percent and 0.49 percent correspondingly subsequent to a one percent upsurge in palm kernel exports throughout the preceding one year (QPKX (-1)) and the preceding two years (QPKX (-2)). Moreover, the export of rubber in Nigeria has been found to have a notable and favourable influence on the country's economic growth. Specifically, a one percent increase in the quantity of rubber exported in the current and previous years (QRXP (-1) and QRXP (-2)) corresponds to about 13.1 percent and 7.9 percent increases in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Nigeria, respectively. The findings indicate a 1% rise in EXRT (-1), while EXRT (-2) correspondingly led to a GDP growth of around 0.16% and 0.35% respectively. Based on the empirical evidence, it is strongly advised that the Nigerian government should enhance its endeavours in the cultivation and processing of cocoa, palm kernel, and rubber as a means to foster the holistic economic advancement of the nation.