ASSESSMENT OF FISH PRICE VOLATILITY IN NIGERIA

Abstract

Based on monthly pricing data from 1995 to 2015, this study analyzes price volatility in the Nigerian fish market. The exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model was used to analyze the univariate volatility of the market. The fish supply market's long-term persistence of price volatility is an indication of a fundamental level of volatility over the course of the research period. The first-order autoregressive term's value was considerable for the fresh, frozen, and smoked fish markets, according to empirical findings. In comparison to fresh fish prices (-0.37) and smoke prices (-2.09), frozen fish prices (0.72) showed a greater persistence parameter. The three fish price variance models all contained large asymmetric terms. According to the study, increased strategic intervention is required for increased agricultural output and adequate fish stocks, particularly to balance out seasonal variations and time lags in the fish trade.