EFFECTS OF POPULATION GROWTH AND URBANIZATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA

Abstract

The uncontrollable population growth and urbanization rates in Nigeria is empirically contrary to the Malthus population and Haris-Todaro propositions. Thus, this motivated this study on the effects of population growth, urbanization, and economic growth in Nigeria. Secondary annual datasets from 1980 to 2019 were sourced from the World Development Indicators (WDI), the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin (CBN).  To achieve the specific objectives, the OLS estimation techniques employed are Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS), and granger causality to test the causal direction of the model variables. While the ARDL estimates the short-run and long-run impact, the FMOLS estimates the long-run effects of population growth and urbanization on economic growth. Lastly, the granger causality test helps to identify the policy directions in this study. Findings revealed that population growth has a positive and significant effect on economic growth in both the short-run and long-run, while urbanization has a negative and insignificant effect on economic growth in the short-run and the long-run over the study periods. Therefore, the study recommended that government policy should be directed to improve the active population growth to spur economic growth through a quality education system. Also, Urbanization Policy should be guided to maximize the benefits rather than the current challenges posed like increasing Urban Unemployment.